In 2011, China introduced a series of economic policies, such as real estate purchase restrictions, tightening the scale of credit, adjusting bank reserve interest, etc., to prevent economic overheating and contain inflation, thus guiding China's economic stability and sustainable development.
In the context of this economic policy, people are more cautious and sensitive about the trend of the economic situation. Like other manufacturing industries in the field, the antique furniture industry has also shown signs of relative cooling and consolidation. These circumstances have aroused the attention of many antique furniture companies and the majority of traditional furniture lovers: What is the overall performance of the antique furniture market in 2011? How will the antique furniture industry develop in 2012? Does the mahogany furniture industry face the risk of an overall decline? In this regard, we invited the Vice Chairman of the China Furniture Association, the Vice Chairman of the China Arts and Crafts Association, and Mr. Wu Bingliang, the Ming furniture designer, to analyze and forecast the Chinese antique furniture market.
Reviewing the market development in 2011
In the past year, China’s economy has continued to develop steadily, and people’s living standards have also increased. The demand for furniture in their own living space has also been continuously improved. Chinese mahogany furniture is also loved and sought after by its unique national characteristics and artistic charm. Under the strong market demand, the development of the antique furniture industry in 2011 has been promoted. The national antique furniture enterprises have reached more than 10,000, and have been in Taishan, Zhongshan, Fujian, Xianyou, Zhejiang Dongyang, Hebei Dacheng, Shandong Zibo, Jiangsu. Changshu and other places have formed an industrial cluster, presenting a thriving development scene in the antique furniture industry.
Throughout 2011, there have been some new challenges in our antique furniture industry. In addition to the impact of the country's macro-control policies, in the second half of last year, it was also disturbed by some false news, such as the withdrawal of hot money, the plummeting of mahogany furniture, the bursting of the bubble and other false news. In the news about Jin Sinan, it is also the combination of the fabrication of historical facts and the on-the-spot rehearsal. The interpretation of some collectors sold red sandalwood, mahogany, and investment and collection of gold nanmu furniture, making many people do not understand the truth. Consumers are confused. Then, what is the investment value of traditional high-end furniture materials such as lobular rosewood, huanghuali (Hainan, Vietnam), old mahogany (from Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam)? What will happen to our antique furniture market in 2012? In response to these questions, let me talk about my own views:
(1) Regarding the news reports that the media conducted the "Wenzhou hot money withdrawal and caused the redwood to plummet", I think it is seriously inconsistent with the reality at the time. As we all know, Wenzhou private enterprises have always been engaged in real estate, financial investment and other industries. The mahogany furniture is mainly made by traditional hand-made, with long production cycle, complicated process, many sales links, slow capital recovery, scattered enterprise, fierce competition in the industry, and relatively low overall return rate. It is neither suitable for hot money speculation nor the goal of speculation. Their withdrawal of funds from other industries has nothing to do with the mahogany furniture industry, and it will not affect the development of the mahogany furniture market. Therefore, these news reports are basically deviating from the facts. The spread of such news misleads consumers and has a negative impact on the mahogany furniture market.
(2) In the report about Jin Shinan, the media also took individual collectors out to make a show, claiming that he sold the rosewood and huanghuali furniture and invested in the collection of Jinsi Nanmu furniture. The news effect produced by this has also made many consumers unpredictable in a short period of time: What is the difference between redwood and golden nanmu? What is better or worse? Can not help but let people have such questions. Looking at the information, it is easy to find that although the material of Nanmu is better in white wood and cork, compared with red sandalwood, huanghuali and old mahogany, it is not the same level of wood, which is far from them. For example, gold nanmu can be made in only a few decades, but some precious woods, especially red sandalwood and huanghuali, have been in the past few hundred years or even thousands of years. Since the Ming Dynasty, red sandalwood, huanghuali and old mahogany have always been the main materials used in royal court furniture. Ming and Qing furniture made with them is also well-known in China and abroad, and is highly praised and loved by the world. In the real market, to analyze the level of a wood, we can also judge from its supply and market price.
Lobular rosewood
The lobular rosewood is produced in India and its resources are already very scarce. According to incomplete statistics, in recent years, the Indian lobular rosewood imported into China's mainland market is only about 3,000 tons. Although the price of lobular rosewood last year was about 10% to 20%, the current market demand is still very strong. It is understood that the current common price of lobular rosewood, the market price is between 600,000-800,000 per ton; slightly better wood, 800,000-100,000 per ton; no hollow superior material, 100 per ton 10,000-1.3 million; special high-quality large materials, good materials, the price per ton is more than 1.5 million yuan.
Hainan Huanghua Pear
In recent years, Hainan huanghuali has gradually dried up, which can be said to be "a hard to find". I personally went to Hainan and the relevant person in charge of the Hainan Provincial Collectors Association and Mr. Wang Mingzhen, the president of the Hainan Yellow Pear Association, to investigate the problems of the stock and price of Hainan Huanghua Pear. According to the actual investigation, a serious resource information is obtained: in each village in Hainan Island through various channels, the Hainan huanghuali old materials that can be found are accumulated only in thousands of kilograms. At present, the length of Hainan huanghuali old materials is mostly around 1 meter, and long materials exceeding 1.5 meters are very rare. In terms of price, Hainan huanghuali is currently 10-15 cm in diameter and 1 meter in length. The price per kilogram is between 6,000 yuan and 8,000 yuan, equivalent to more than 10 million yuan per ton. The old material with a diameter of 15-25 cm and a length of about 1 meter is between 8,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan per kilogram. If it is 15-25 cm in diameter and 1.5 to 2 meters in length, the price per kilogram can reach 10,000 to 15,000, equivalent to more than 20 million yuan per ton. At present, Hainan huanghuali wood is traded with several materials and several plates. The supply is far from satisfying the needs of the majority of fans. This growing contradiction between supply and demand will also promote the steady rise in the price of Hainan huanghuali. It can be said that Hainan Huanghuali is based on opportunities and fate.
Vietnamese yellow pear
Regarding the supply of Vietnamese huanghuali materials, I have already made a more detailed introduction in the previous two years. At present, the basic severance of Vietnamese huanghuali wood supply has become a reality. In the past two years, there have been few companies that can purchase Vietnamese huanghuali wood and use it to design and manufacture Ming and Qing furniture. According to incomplete statistics, the inventory of antique furniture enterprises in the country and the Vietnamese huanghuali wood in the collector's personal collection can not exceed 100 tons in the market. In the current market, the medium round material of Vietnamese huanghuali has been difficult to stock. Some larger rounds or wider sheets have current market prices between 5 and 8 million per ton. Some special high-quality good materials are even more on the block trade, and the transaction price has even exceeded 10 million per ton. At present, Hainan huanghuali and Vietnamese huanghuali furniture can be seen in some domestic mahogany furniture professional markets. There are fewer and fewer Vietnamese huanghuali that can be enjoyed and invested in the market in the past few years. The era of good quality and low price has become us. A good memory.
Rosewood
Red rosewood, which is produced in Southeast Asian countries such as Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, is also a valuable material for traditional Chinese furniture. In 2011, due to the economic downturn and some negative reporting factors, the market price of old red rosewood fell by 10%-15% in small and medium-sized materials, but the expected rate of decline was not large. At present, the red rosewood on the market is also priced according to its size. The small round material is between 50,000 and 80,000 tons per ton; the medium material with a diameter of 12-20 cm is 80,000 per ton. About 130,000; the diameter of 20-35 cm, about 200,000 to 250,000 per ton; the good sheet is the price of the block, equivalent to 400,000 to 600,000 per ton. However, the current supply and demand situation of old red rosewood is not optimistic. From the point of view of demand, there are more than 10,000 antique furniture enterprises in the country, many of which use red rosewood as furniture materials. If one-third of the enterprises (more than 4,000) use red rosewood, which is calculated according to the average annual consumption of 50 to 100 tons per company, then one year, the national antique furniture enterprises consume The red rosewood material can be as much as 30 to 400,000 tons, and the amount of consumables is amazing. Therefore, as time goes by, its contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, which will further increase the market price of red rosewood.
Compared with high-grade furniture materials such as red sandalwood, huanghuali, and red rosewood, the supply of straw pear and white rosewood is larger, and the market is relatively stable. At present, the price of straw pear is between 15,000 and 20,000 per ton, white. The price of the twig is between 20,000 and 30,000 per ton, and its market has increased, but the floating rate is not large.
other
In addition to the above-mentioned precious wood market, in recent months, the nanmu wood has also attracted the attention of some people. It is a kind of wood which is more prominent among white wood and softwood. It is distributed in various provinces of southern China and abroad. Among them, the genus Phoebe from Sichuan is relatively excellent, and it is also known as "Jinnan". The current supply of Phoebe nanmu is relatively abundant, and its market price has been relatively stable. During the period of 2007-2008, the price of the old material of Sichuan Jinshen was about 6,000 yuan per ton. After being shipped to Beijing, it was sold at a discount. The price is between 12,000 and 25,000 per ton. Recently, in the area of ​​Emei Mountain in Sichuan, the old materials of Jinshen Nan, the round material and square material with a diameter of 20-30 cm, the price of the goods is between 30,000 and 50,000 per ton; the demolition of about 35 cm in diameter The amount of old materials in the room is between 60,000 and 80,000 per ton. There are also some beautiful patterns of Jinshen, which are about 400 cm long, 30-40 cm wide and 3 cm thick. The price of each piece is between 6,000 and 8,000 yuan. The Jinshen Yin-sinking wood that has been excavated from the ground or the water is mostly between 60-130 cm in diameter and about 5 meters in length. The price per cubic meter is between 80,000 and 100,000. Since ancient times, Sichuan has been rich in Jinshen, and its resource reserves are very rich. It is buried in underground Jinnannan logs, each of which can reach 6,000 to 10,000 kilograms. At present, how many trees are buried under the ravines and riverbeds in Sichuan. Jinsi Nan Yin Shenmu, still an unknown number. In ancient times, the nanmu wood was used for palaces, temples and some folk buildings, as an accessory for some rosewood furniture, or for some lacquered wood furniture. According to this, from the perspective of investment and collection, does Jinsin have room for appreciation potential? I believe that everyone will have some rational judgments.
Looking forward to 2012, the classical furniture market and the antique furniture industry will usher in a warmer spring.
From the above-mentioned supply and market conditions of the valuable woods of huanghuali, lobular rosewood and old red rosewood, the valuable materials are not only valuable because of scarcity, but also because they lasted for hundreds of years and even thousands of years. Therefore, it is a resource that cannot be regenerated in the short term. The scarcity of precious wood resources is also a great challenge for the contemporary antique furniture industry. How to make full and reasonable use of these hard-won wood has become a problem facing the entire industry. I believe that only by improving the production process and design level of products, from the rise of commodity production to the height of art collections, and giving these woods a second "life", we can make more fine products to inherit and implement our Social responsibility, let the excellent culture of traditional Chinese furniture be inherited and developed in our contemporary times!
Looking forward to 2012, monetary policy will gradually loosen, and stable expansion of domestic demand will guide consumption as an inevitable choice for economic policy. In the case of economic development, social prosperity, and people living and working in peace, the demand for mahogany furniture will inevitably rise. Statistics from the China Furniture Association show that in recent years, the total sales of mahogany furniture has increased year by year. In 2011, it has risen to 7 in total sales of furniture (including fabric, sofa, leather art, plywood furniture, and modern furniture French furniture). About %, this is enough to illustrate the huge demand for antique furniture market. I am convinced that in the next five to ten years, the Chinese art market, especially the mahogany furniture market, which is one of the essence of Chinese traditional culture, will inevitably be further developed and expanded to usher in a warmer spring.
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