Release date: 2018-12-03 Source: carton industry
At the "China Pulp and Paper Technology Forum and the Ninth China Paper Pulp and Paper Technology Forum" held on November 13-14, 2018, Mr. Zhao Wei, Chairman of the China Paper Association, made a paper on the paper industry from January to September 2018. report.
The report reveals a lot of data, Xiao Bian believes that the authenticity is high, at least coincides with the industry's feelings about the market's heat.
The output of carton fell by 26.1% compared with last year, which is basically consistent with the impression that the industry generally believes that “playing 30% offâ€.
What Xiao Bian really cares about is to calculate how much inventory the paper mill has in the report. How much food is there in the landlord's house, which is what the farmers are most concerned about.
The report did not say that it could only "dig" the data.
Four lines were dug from the report (data from January to September 2018, total 9 months):
1. “Paper and paperboard production†decreased by 5.93 million tons, and “paper products†decreased by 12.19 million tons.
Paper and paperboard production includes household paper, office paper, and packaging paper. Packaging paper can generally account for 50%. According to the weight, packaging paper should be reduced by 3 million tons. On the other hand, paper products have been reduced by more than 12 million tons. When combined, there should be 9 million tons of base paper. This data should be the stock of raw paper in the paper mill.
2. “Paper and board output†was 88.66 million tons, down 7.3% year-on-year, and “paper products†decreased by 22.3% year-on-year.
Paper products have dropped by 15% more than paper production. Assuming that both packaging paper and non-package paper are falling in the same proportion, then 15% of 9 months is 1.35 months. This part should also be inventories, 8866÷9× 1.35 = 13.29 million tons. Among them, it should be mainly the inventory of packaging paper.
3. Inventories of finished products, “paper industry†41.3 billion.
The industry's inventory is 58.8 billion, and the paper industry accounts for 41.3 billion. It can be seen that the paper mills concentrate 70% of the inventory in the whole industry. According to the average price of 4000 raw paper, 41.3 billion inventories exceeded 10 million tons.
4. The output of “paper products†was 43.26 million tons. The average monthly 4326 ÷ 9 = 4.8 million tons. Introduce the above data, 10 million tons of inventory ÷ 4.8 million / month = 2.08 months = 62 days.
Through these four lines, it should be possible to conclude that the packaging of raw paper stocks reached 10 million tons at the end of September. This order of magnitude can be used for 2 months downstream.
Then, it is not surprising that paper mills have recently announced that they will stop for a long time before and after the Spring Festival.
If the paper mill's average inventory reaches 2 months, then it will consume 1 month through the planned shutdown, and after the Spring Festival next year, the inventory will drop to within 1 month.
Therefore, recalling the "paper waste" on September 27 this year, the rationality of the above inference can be confirmed.
Therefore, you should be careful not to mention that the safety margin of the original paper price increase is still very high. Downstream of the industry, although how much to buy.
Responsible editor: Ge
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