Source: Paper Micro Platform
In 2019, the national waste price began to rise. In the past few days, paper mills in all major regions of the country raised the purchase price of the country, including large paper mills such as Jiangxi Liwen.
Looking ahead to the 2019 national waste market, Sino-US trade disputes, waste paper merchant speculation, and imported waste paper policy are still the main influencing factors. Some analysts believe that there is an expected increase in pressure above the price of waste paper, while the underlying support factors are gradually weakened. In 2019, the national waste price will face a range of fluctuations.
Sino-US trade disputes will become the main factors restricting the rise of national waste prices
In 2018, affected by the Sino-US trade dispute, the domestic economy was stable and declining, and the paper packaging market was under a lot of pressure, which further led to the continued decline in national waste prices. As for 2019, in terms of the development trend of trade wars, there may be two stages of stalemate, intensification and easing, and suspension.
If the trade disputes in 2019 are eased and suspended, it will undoubtedly bring the packaging paper industry chain out of operational pressure and regain its rising expectations. The national waste price will return to a high level. On the contrary, if the stalemate and intensification continue, the national waste price may continue to fall.
However, from the perspective of various securities, analysts and economists, Sino-US trade disputes will be a long-term situation. Therefore, the probability of stalemate and aggravation in 2019 is greater than the probability of easing and suspension. The pressure on domestic paper packaging demand is likely to increase, and the national waste price is difficult to be optimistic.
In 2019, the speculative atmosphere of the national waste market will quickly exit
In recent years, the speculative operating atmosphere of the national waste market has existed for a long time, but in the second half of 2018, with the continuous decline of the national waste price, the profitability of speculative operation in the market is more pessimistic, which is not conducive to the high-level operation of the speculative atmosphere in 2019. .
As a result, the supply of waste materials will gradually return to a stable state, and even the residence time of the country's waste recycling will continue to shorten, which will help the country's annual recycling volume increase, and also have a certain impact on its price trend.
Waste paper pulp and semi-finished papers are tried to import, which may affect the impact of smaller imported waste paper policies.
Finally, as an important support for the national waste price movement trend, the amount of imported waste paper will continue to be significantly tightened in 2019 according to policy settings. However, with the attempt to import waste paper pulp and semi-finished paper, the support for the 2019 national waste price will be reduced as the industry's changes accelerate.
In summary, under the background that the pressure above the national waste price is expected to expand, and the underlying support factors are gradually weakened, the national waste price will face a range volatility in 2019, and it is difficult to see a sharp rise, but it will hardly fall too much. .
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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